"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson

June 26, 2013

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner

With app stocks on fire I've been digging for great setups.  Check out this EGAN.  They are a highly rated customer service app company.  On their recent earnings conference call they noted their backlog doubled Y/Y.  Check out the weekly chart.




The stock is thin and impulsive.  If the market correction is over, this stock is going to keep ripping hard.  Very few people know this stock or the good story behind it and it's in a hell of a strong group.

It might be a good idea to use a smaller position size until we are clear this will break out.  There will be plenty of room to add as we look for a measured move to nearly 15.

Stocktwits @a_jackson
Twiiter @a_jackson8

June 25, 2013

Quick look at Google

We have a wedge in a leading stock!  This pattern tends to lead to trend continuation.  Note the relative strength is actually increasing.  However, if this breaks lower and below the 50D SMA at 860 we have another signal to stay clear of stocks in the short term.  


June 18, 2013

FLIR: a new long idea

This stock is in the very hot aerospace and defense group.  It also has a created a heck of a nearly two year bottoming pattern targeting much higher prices.  Let's take a look.


Note price edging up against the neckline on today's huge breakaway gap.  If a price breakout were to occur over ~27.50, it would likely be accompanied by a relative strength breakout and a bullish MACD cross.

One more reason I'm interested is a possible 4-5 year double pattern where last July's low undercut the 2009 low.  Of course it's too early to tell, but this can be a multi-year performer allowing us long term tax advantages.

June 17, 2013

Head and shoulders sending leaders to their knees and toes?

Update: 7/14/13 

Both C and BAC came just short of reaching their measured move targets before reversing higher.  That's a bullish hint towards the strength of the markets.  

GILD came nowhere close to it's measurement of 41 stopped at 47..  I can't adequately state the significance of this action!  It is already back to the May highs, but the V nature of the rally suggests we are should at least pause here.    

Z has rejected it's potential top.  We can now expect it to aggressively approach it's upside measured move of 70.  

These are all bullish signs out of high quality stocks.  It's just more confirmation of the strength of this market.



Yeah, I used a nursery rhyme, it's been a looong day; lol.

Z - has been a big time mover this last year or so.  There is this potential 3+ month top setting up that would measure to 33.  That might seem scary for longs given we are at 53.  Also note we haven't come close to the 70 upside target, but it's not like this has completely broken down.  If it does, it suggests there may be a company specific problem as the internet group in general looks strong.  Perhaps it's just going down because of declining real estate prices?    


C - this has a 1 month pattern.  The volume pattern suggests this is for real, but the longer term trend doesn't seem at risk.


BAC - very interesting action here as it tries to actually form a higher low.  If it plays out, again we see there isn't much long term damage projected.



GILD - this top is a bit larger but we have to remember the incredible move this stock has had.  This could lead to an attractive buying opportunity.




  

June 12, 2013

This chart spells misery for bulls.

This chart is a smoothed version of the NYSE Arms index.  What is bothersome is we had a small rally off the lows and this has already flashed a bearish warning signal.  When the market has had recent similarly sized pullbacks in the uptrend, this indicator has spiked to a buying zone.  We can derive that, in fact, this time IS different.  Also note how much this indicator is hanging in a the bearish zone.  More on TRIN.  


June 09, 2013

Charts of interest 6/10/13: Does this bounce have legs?

A few themes in this post:

  •  Dividend names look attractive for long opportunities here.  
  • Sentiment and breadth suggest this recent bounce is for real. 
  • The mortgage finance group looks pretty good. 


The dividend sell-off may be coming to an end here as rates are still historically low.  Why?  Check out these charts.

Real Estate Index - posting a weekly doji on heavy volume



The Soft Drink Index with a piercing line candle reversal with relative strength in a long time support zone.




Consumer Staples relative strength is bouncing off a significant support line.



Pipeline Index with an in neck candle reversal in a long term relative strength support zone.



Finally, and most importantly, the 10 year yield is reaching significant resistance.






Breadth is looking healthy at this point and flashing buy signals.

Note how the Nasdaq bull % index has held up extremely well during this most recent sell-off.  The horizontal white lines show other pull in's off SPX peaks.



NYMO gave a strong bounce signal Wednesday night.  There is still more room to go here.



 
This recent spike in this volatility ratio leads me to believe we can at least re-test the SPX highs.


CPC is showing more bearish sentiment than the November lows.  That's pretty bullish if you ask me.



Our ATM options sentiment indicator is oh-so-close to firing a buy signal.  This last fired off at the lows in early March and at the market bottom in November.



Mortgage Financing names have shown relative strength on this pull back.  This is in our top 5 groups right now.






XOP has a cup and handle look to it.  Notice the strong bounce before it even touched the 50D.  A clean setup on one of our top five groups.




Reminder:

All ideas shown on this blog represent the authors opinion based on the data available.