"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson

July 23, 2013

Correction warning signs

BPNYA - right at resistance that capped breadth in two of the last four peaks



30D NYMO - testing the 0 line and approaching a falling resistance line.



NASI - The highest levels since the '09 lows.



NY A/D - approaching old highs.  



ATM CPC - another indicator in a ST top zone.



Is energy starting to take the lead in the markets here?  If so, XLE needs to hold this relative strength breakout.


July 21, 2013

Introducing Top 5 groups (T5G)

The top five group list (I'll refer to it as T5G) is simply a quick reference to my favorite industry groups and themes in the stock market.  These are areas where I want to be long.    I'll keep this posted and updated in a tab on the pages bar.  I've included some tickers of interest in each group (these aren't recommendations, but they are good starting points for new investors).  

Apps/SaaS - These first two plays are based on the rapidly growing mobile internet.  More and more companies are creating high quality apps ans services for individuals and businesses alike.

BEAT, DRIV, EGAN, YELP, ANGI, Z, QIWI, TRIP

Mobile web infrastructure - As usage increases with the capabilities of networks improving, there are some great plays in this area.  Things like Instagram Video are driving mobile video more than we could have predicted even a few months ago.

CIEN, CSCO, JNPR, RKUS, PCTI, SONS, AMT, AFOP, CLFD




Energy Producers and Services -  Unfortunately Oil prices are in the process of heading MUCH higher.  This is a big win for all kinds of energy stocks.

CLR, WFT, BHI, BCEI, OAS, GPOR, ROSE, OIS, ATW, NOV, WPX



Clean/Efficient Energy - Governments around the world are demanding greater energy efficiency and societies are demanding cleaner energy (as gas prices rise, of course the demand for cheaper energy will escalate).  There are so many ways to play this trend.  The smart grid, electric or natural gas vehicles, solar energy, hydrogen power, LED lighting; just take your pick!

CREE, POWI, WPRT, SSNI, FSLR, SCTY, ENPH, HYGS

Financials - The possibility that we are in the middle of a 30 year bond market top is looking more probable every week.  With that, we are seeing stocks of companies with cash often invested in short term paper breaking out of 4-5 year bases and starting the beginning of what will be massive moves.

JPM, KEY, BBT, C, PNC, RJF, MS, FITB, HIG, AIG

July 15, 2013

Piper Jaffray: A new technically based Investment Idea

Piper Jaffray was downgraded today, but it has set up potential bottoms on multiple time frames.    


The risk reward ratio is stellar here with a reasonable stop area of 30.  If the markets push to new all time highs, we could be looking at a significant breakout above 36.5 and an initial target of the neckline at ~42.

At the end of the day this could be a 3+ year head and shoulders bottom and we may have a double from these levels.  The risk reward doesn't get much better than this.


July 07, 2013

New long term investment idea

I've been writing a series of posts on some long term investment ideas.  This unknown software as a service stock (SaaS) specializing in eDiscovery.  The following is the description of the company from their website:

Epiq Systems is a leading global provider of technology-enabled solutions for electronic discovery, bankruptcy and class action administration. We offer full-service capabilities to support litigation, investigations, financial transactions, regulatory compliance and other legal matters. Our innovative technology and services, combined with deep subject-matter expertise, provide reliable solutions for the professionals we serve.

The long term chart is a beauty.  We are in roughly year 12 of base on base action!  A huge buy signal fires over 15.   



They had 24% growth of their core business YoY in Q1.  On top of that, the company pays a 2.6% dividend. 

My main area of concern is future dividend payments.  The balance sheet is pretty fluffy with over 80% of their assets in goodwill and accounts receivable.  That said, operating cash flow is consistently growing each year with 50% growth in 2012 vs 2011.      

At the end of the day this looks like a fantastic investment with the raging bull market in court proceedings!  


Reminder:

All ideas shown on this blog represent the authors opinion based on the data available.