"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson

June 30, 2014

Fast Facts: IDTI


  • IDTI is a semi company
  • They make chips for cloud data centers, 4G networks and power mgmt for computers
  • The biz is split 60/40 communications/computing
  • 70% of 2013 sales were to Asian
  • Flat Y/Y sales growth, but EPS is growing about 20% over the last two years
  • OCF doubled Y/Y
  • They bought back 2M shares in Q1
  • 30% of revenues are spent on R&D

June 19, 2014

Time to buy silver?

My pal Jordan aka @thetechnicalroom, brought up some great points about seasonality in silver the other day.  At the end of Junes the historical seasonality pattern bottoms out and significantly outperforms stocks in Q3.



That spurred me to put together this post with the compelling arguments for long silver here and now.  You can check it out here:  http://stks.co/r0Rvz

Trade 'em well!

June 15, 2014

Sentiment stretched

I like to track the equity only put call ratio to determine how bullish the market is on individual stocks relative to the moves in the S&P 500.

Of course the put call ratios have their weaknesses.  We don't know if the options were sold, bought, opened, closed and we surely do not know the reasoning for such moves.  What we do know is when greed takes over, most people tend to press the buy button.


Clearly we're at a level that has produced short term price highs the last three times it's fired a signal.

While we have this hint, maybe we're just late enough in the bull market that sentiment will continue to stretch out.  Also, you don't want to get out of the market unless the setups dry up and your stops are hit because a ton of crazy moves happen in late stage bull markets.

Trade 'em well!

June 12, 2014

An oil spec lining up on three charting methods

With Crude oil breaking a quarter year consolidation, it's time to look for lower quality energy names that benefit from higher energy prices.  First lets look at the breakout.  The pattern measures to last fall's high near 112.  



MPO is an oil co that came public just before a 20% drop in the XLE in 2012.  They don't have assets in any of the hot shale plays, so nobody really cares about it.  What they do have is an awesome chart that's setting up for an explosive move higher to 9 and possibly 17.



We can see after the wedge breakout it's started to push through the cloud.  Now it's trying to break free of the major cloud resistance.


If we look on the Point and Figure chart we see this 6.50/7 level is also huge for it.  A break of the red line would signal a change in trend to higher.


Obviously there isn't a clear risk level to trade against nearby, but in this case, the ~6.70 area is the level of risk after it breaks higher.  

Trade 'em well!

Disclosure:  I'm long, looking to hold throughout the summer.

June 11, 2014

Daily Wrap

  • Daily recap:  Materials and specifically energy led today as chaos in Iraq is increasing.  It's also worth noting Utilities are continuing to weaken, which is a good sign for stocks.


chart via finviz.com

  • Breakout of the day:  X and AKS broke out of daily head and shoulders bottoms.  Not surprisingly, the two charts are nearly identical(as seen in the correlation pane on the bottom).  



  • Cool read of the day:  HP is working on a project to increase computing power 6x.  Is this a reason to go buy HPQ right now?  I don't think so, but it's a great reminder that things will always keep changing in tech and open new possibilities we've never thought were possible.

June 09, 2014

Round numbers

JD, a recent chinese web IPO went public in the thick of the May pessimism.  I tweeted what I liked about about it on stockwits

$JD plenty to like about it: ipo priced in a negative sentiment environment, notable catalysts coming, a competitor trading well ($vips)
— Aaron Jackson (@a_jackson) May. 27 at 09:25 PM

Now this thing is trading off round numbers.  Institutions with big gains from the IPO appear to be letting go of some of their shares at 23, 27,28.  While they sell, the market is quickly gobbling up those shares and this keeps ripping higher.


Now i'm long and biased, and this isn't a pitch to go out and buy it, but this is a nice hint when watching future IPO's you're interested in.

Trade 'em well

India

It's been a great year for India as it's now leading the world markets.  It's something that's definitely overlooked as we focus on our own markets.  The key thing to keep in mind how fresh and clean that seven year breakout is.  There are years of upside coming here and this could be THEE single best place to invest in the world.  Any and all pullbacks in 2014-15 are buys via the ETF EPI. 



June 03, 2014

Sup, treasuries?

Sentiment has really shifted in bonds in the last month or so and the TLT has really started to trade poorly.    We're on the verge of a huge false breakout, which could lead to a sharp treasury market sell-off.  


I highly suggest reading MacNeil Curry's take.  He thinks a vicious move higher is coming in treasury rates.   If that were to occur, we'd have a catalyst that slows down the economy and stop US equities dead in their tracks.

Trade 'em well!

GAF? WTF!

GAF is shaping up as an attractive opportunity technically to money managers who want to get involved in the emerging markets.  It's pulled in to the 10 week average and the 40 week MA has turned up.  Clearly this has the makings of a huge trend higher.  High 60's would be a gift.  

It's an important time to ask 'what can go right in this part of the world?'. 


Trade 'em well!

Reminder:

All ideas shown on this blog represent the authors opinion based on the data available.