Markets emerging

The emerging markets have outperformed the U.S. markets of late so it's time to take a closer look.

India has really led the worldwide markets this year.  You can see they are having their own December 2012 moment breaking resistance from the 2007 highs.  

Singapore is trying to follow suit as it broke a half year falling wedge.  3300 is a huge pivot here that needs to break to get us excited about more upside.

Keep an eye on this Middle East and Africa proxy.  It's just been basing in this range since 2010 and a move higher could be the start of a multi year move.

The relative strength in emerged non-US markets (EFA) is apparently ending.  Is risk coming on outside the US?  Who knows, but what we can gather is emerged markets aren't as attractive as they use to be.

The BRIC ETF has made higher lows relative to last summer and recently ended the intermediate downtrend which is impressive given all the Russia/China noise.

With the recent pivot low around 29.50, there's very low risk here for investors.  That's not to say there is no risk, as the long term trend is still sideways.

Odds are pretty good that India will lead global markets in 2014-2015.  Does that mean emerging markets in general are set to move higher?  Who knows, but we have a few things to watch for clues.

4 stocks you can trade long right now

 These stocks all have key support near by offering low risk entries for multilple time frames.

FLDM has a short term bounce in it, maybe a re-test of highs.  Maybe.

MDSO price structure is not that favorable, but this may have a bounce to the 10 wk MA at 60.

NOW was a classic waterfall momentum reversal.  The low at 55 is very significant and an easy level to trade against.  

GEOS has the best price structure of all these and it's in a hot group.

Good Trading!

Strength and shame

Let's have a quick look at two market drivers worth watching the rest of the week.

The FXI outperformed today up 1.5% while the Nasdaq had a case of the Monday's.  Is it an aberration?  That strength will be tested as it's reached price and RS resistance.

Some Chinese web stocks like VIPS, DANG and YY fell to and bounced at high reward/risk entry levels today.  They'll offer hints for risk appetite in general tomorrow.

Biotech has been the star of the markets these last few days.  A bounce gives us a head and shoulders topping pattern and a helluva shorting opportunity around the low 250's.  If it's ever going to break down hard, this is the time due to the huge amount of damage in the individual charts. 

Position Update

Lately, momentum has really gotten smoked.  The market continues to position defensively and a ton of stocks that look promising are failing.  To me, this is a great time to do research, study mistakes and develop my trading craft.  That said, let's take a look. 

I wanted to hold FSPM as it appeared headed to 10-12 but it broke key support so it just seemed smart to dump it.  It rode up the underside of the trendline for a couple of days where I could have gotten a better price

I originally decided to ignore my stop in AWAY just because of option positioning.  It barely held the 50D and finally broke away on Friday.

UVXY tried to break below support last week, but it quickly reversed higher.  I bought it on Tuesday and then more on Wednesday with a 66.70 average.  I'm holding it as insurance as the probability of a short term pullback / volatility is high.

UPL - still holding this vs 23 and watching the LT resistance

HZNP - what a beast.  This stock continues to have one of the largest supply demand imbalances I've ever seen.  At the same time, I don't ever like seeing price treating the upper bollinger band as support.

EDIT: just after the open this started breaking the rising trend over the bollinger band, so I sold it at 16.60 and change this AM.  Of course I tweeted live on twitter/stocktwits.  The trend broke and we got confirmation shortly thereafter.  I just assumed it'd confirm because of how euphoric the daily chart was and how biotechs were trading.

IRBT is starting to look very suspect short term.  I'll continue to hold vs 39.

VIMC - This one continues to just trend higher.  Still sitting and waiting in it.  

VRA - stretched past the initial stop area, but I couldn't sell it.  There is just so much short interest (50% or so) and the intermediate trend is just now turning up.  I couldn't sell it.  I lucked out; now there's an area to trade against at 26.  

Good luck out there!

EDIT: no longer loving the Gold Miners

EDIT: the bullish signal I referred to was completely wiped out.  I was stopped out of my position and no longer have any interest in longs in the metals complex for the time being


The gold miners have been hit hard this week, but the chart is giving a unique bullish signal.  It's fallen so hard it's created a bullish RSI reversal.  RSI reversals are when price makes a higher low and RSI makes a lower low over a short period of time.  You can see that here between the March 7th low and today's candle.

The risk reward is obviously scewed bullish with price at support, but this pattern is telling us we can target a test of the old highs.  It's invalidated below the Mar 7 price low at 25.86.  There are a ton of good ways to play it, but I chose to just buy the GDX at 26.15 and use a .50 stop.  If we get a push higher I'd like to buy next week's 27-28 call spread currently trading around .20.  Good Trading!