on the radar

Here's a bucket of charts on my radar into Tuesday

Let's start with energy.  TSO doji'd at the rising 50D MA.  Is the refiner trade still alive?

HP has clear sailing for another 10 bucks into the 200D MA.

VDSI formed a very nice reversal day at the 200D MA.

CMCM is testing some major resistance.  My gosh...is that a giant head and shoulders bottom?  Is this the next QUNR(up 50% in a month)?  It might be.  (I took a long Monday AM)

 CCJ is testing two month resistance.  A couple of accumulation days are popping up.  This comes on the radar as the mining space keeps rising up industry group rankings.

There are a ton of ways to draw the downtrend in Tesla, it appears to have broken it's downtrend.

Lumber Liquidators has seen sellers strengthen at the 35 level for the second day now.  Tomorrow's open will tell us plenty.  Short term traders can stay long versus the trendline, bottom of Monday's gap 33.88 OR the friday close level around 33.25

shippers

Fast moves often characterize shipping trades as the businesses are so volatile.  We're seeing one of those volatile moves higher here and now.

NAT has left a 3 plus year bottoming base (i'm long)

TNP is exiting a 4 year bottoming base

There are more, but these ones are at the top of my totem pole.

Thanks for reading!

Timeframes

Some of these China ADRs are amazing.  The can seem so intimidating because almost every day is a gap.  On top of that, they MOVE.  Let's take a look at a real time example in a China coal stock YZC.

I'm bringing this name up because the coals, steels, miners etc are actually showing signs of life and there could be some more big wins to be had in the space.

First let's check out the daily chart.  What a run it's had in the last couple of weeks.  It appears so extended short term.  Also notice the volume.  Given we're at a resistance level, maybe we can catch a consolidation entry sometime in the next week or two.

Now let's zoom out to the weekly.  In reality, this recent two week move is NOTHING.  We could actually make the case that a 'crummy' bounce could lead shares up to 13-14.  I'd also just like to point out how compressed price really had been before the breakout.

No matter how we look at it, the daily chart is going to be stretched for awhile.  If we want to take a long here...we kind of just have to accept that is the type of action that occurs early in a big move.

I'll leave you with a few final thoughts
- throw out the daily bollinger bands in situations like this
- buying here or a shallower consolidation/pullback is fine if necessary
- if a sharper pull in occurs don't like volatility deter you in a pullback.

Thanks for reading!

Ham

Bullish seasonality bolstered the week and all we got was an inside week in the lower half of the prior week's range.  There's little way to cut it, that's disappointing.

From a price stance, basically nothing in the U.S. Markets has changed during the holiday shortened week.  Friday's reaction to the jobs report really puts everything at the low end of the weekly ranges.

The sentiment Sunday night-Monday morning sentiment will be telling.  This is an important time to keep an open mind.  We also need to remember global markets have been trading like they have an on-off switch.

Options sentiment is leaning bearish during this correction as we reach what have been key peaks on multiple time-frames.  That seems like a usual occurrence during a run-of-the-mill correction.  Time will tell if that is the case.

Be sure to check out some of the best reads of the week in See It Market's top trading links compiled by your's truly.  


Market Musings...

SPX equal weight index relative to the S&P 500 blasted to new highs.  So the large cap names are sucking wind relative to the smaller names.  Is that a sign of dollar strength or market breadth?  It appears to be a case of both.

We can see the equal weight index is holding up better during this corrective period.

 Looking at the NYSE stock only Advance-Decline line, we see a very strong breadth reading.

 

Since the equal weight index is showing leadership in a healthy way, we'll track the rising wedge action there rather than the S&P 500.

Biotech continues to show no signs of bearish momentum as it holds over the 50D.

 How about this rising wedge in the Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF.  A tide change to a rising rate environment could be as big a risk to the market as anything.  

The Anti-Dollar trade looks read for prime time...maybe.

One thing i'm watching is the US dollar.  Does it fall here and help prop up prices?  It reversed lower at a key level last week.

The Emerging Currency ETF is testing some key resistance after popping over the falling 50 Day Moving Average.

Gold and Crude Oil have potential bottom setups, but plenty of work to do.

The Agriculture commodity ETF is testing a key level.

Cotton is another commodity trying to finish off a base at a major support area.  

Around The Globe...

The east continues to lead the world as various Asia ETFs test resistance like the Emerging Asia SPDR.

Singapore is testing some pretty heavy resistance after last month's false breakdown.

Emerging Markets quietly broke out of a head and shoulders bottom.  The 42 level is a huge area.

Thanks for reading!  Happy Easter, Happy Passover!

Rotation Report: half-assed

It was a half-assed bounce to end the week.  We can speculate about a lot right now, as there is a ton of damage out there and a lot of volume behind the damage.  Price action during the first few days of April will tell us plenty as we enter the six worst months of the trading year.

The focus of this week's report is some groups standing out.  They can provide some huge clues moving forward.  Let's dig in.

I compiled 20 of my favorite reads of the week in See It Market's Top Trading Links.

Is vol rangebound?

The VIX seems to be respecting the 13-17 range on a closing basis.

Vol term structure may also be forming a lower range on the complacent side of things.

Group Action

Home builders have hit a fresh relative strength high.  Can price break-out?  The strength is permeating through the space as well.

 Are home furnishings forming a continuation wedge?  It sure looks like it for now.

The sharp drop in many biotech names has many folks preaching bubble.  Biotech's momentum via RSI thus-far is undamaged as it maintains the 2015 range.  Further damage from here would be a big hint.

Travel stocks are testing the 10 and 20 week moving average confluence.

 Hotels are flashing relative strength.

Software is another group possibly forming a continuation wedge.

Last week I pointed out the transports via XTN.  Their breakout failed in a big way as the index lost 4.6%.  Note the dow transports ETF (IYT) is testing it's 200 day moving average.

aaaand finally Emerging markets have disappointed for years now.  The line's I drew are quite arbitrary.  I'm more interested in watching the 36-42 range.

Thanks for reading, have a great week!