"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson

September 03, 2012

Chart Obsevations for 9/4/12

The Dow Transports are getting increasingly weaker and are approaching a significant break down.

Shanghai has reached its downside measured move.  Does this mean stability will ensue as the European markets rally?

The QQQ:SPY ratio chart has met its upside objective.

Breadth measures are continually weakening, and now the Value Line Arithmetic Index is diverging from the major market indices.

Financial relative strength is coming to a very critical juncture.  It will tell you next 10% move. The large rising wedge in IYF suggests it will be to the downside.  *upside targets do remain on FAS and XLF*

Some bullish groups: pipelines, mortgages, metals, real estate, drugs

Groups that can bounce this week: semi's, nat gas, ag's

Spain has a pretty important date with the falling 200D moving average coming SOON.

Silver and Junior Miners are trying to lead the base metal space. These are bullish signs that we haven't seen in awhile.

High yield junk instruments, outside of JNK, are starting to bearishly diverge from other debt instruments.

The Yen is near a significant resistance level and looks poised to change the FX landscape.  I have no clue what it really means.

Utilities still look like shit.

When you back the VIX out to a weekly chart you can see a pretty clear double bottom forming targeting 43.

Inflation is going to be a pain in our asses for quite some time.  DBA:SPY RS chart has formed a head & shoulders bottom.  >>>>>Grocers also look like shit.  See SUSS and it's M top.

DBA looks ready to break its consolidation and join the base metals in a rally leading up to the Draghi speech this week.



Reminder:

All ideas shown on this blog represent the authors opinion based on the data available.