"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson

August 26, 2013

Zooming out and embracing a potential sell-off.

Michael Gayed has one helluva interesting chart out on twitter pertaining to corporate bond yield spikes and market events.  If such an event were to occur, there are plenty of stocks that would be excellent buy candidates.  Here is a mix of a few stocks that have my interest.

SNE - with periphery Asian markets looking like death we're waiting on more weakness to pick this up prior to the PS4 launch.  I would love to strike on a chance to buy at the 40 week moving average.



CLF - This one is more of a maaaybe, but the potential makes it worth eying.   This mining stock has traded in a slightly tightening range between 10 and 108 since 2008.


Currently, we have a possible six month bottoming pattern forming.  We can buy anywhere, but the key level is the current 50D SMA level which also happens to be the channel line connecting shoulders in the head and shoulders bottoming pattern.



CREE - LED lighting and CREE bulbs in particular have taken over the lighting shelf space at my local Home Depot this summer!  This stock also has a long term congestion pattern that looks closer to completion than not.  This heavy sell-off is just the opportunity we've been looking for.  If it wants to break the 56 area, we can look towards the 52-50 area for support.  



RVLT might be another LED play if it can base out into the end of the year.  We have to wait for a clear stop area to develop.  There is just no way around that.  



ARRY - The spec of the group, this has pulled in to a long time support area after a major breakout.  The most definite stop area is the rising Green trend-line which is mirroring the 200 day moving average.  Time is definitely our friend here.



August 12, 2013

Updating 7/24's 'correction warning signs'

My last post a couple of weeks ago highlighted market warning signs via breadth and sentiment.

It can be read here:  http://atmcharts.blogspot.com/2013/07/correction-warning-signs.html

The market has been resilient as funds keep flowing into equities.  Although we still see reasons to be cautious on the markets, we've seen this all year, and a stock by stock approach has been the way to play the market.  Here are the updated charts:

NYAD topped at the prior high and has moved lower since.



Put call ratios have stayed very low.  Notice that this measure of CPCE hasn't reached the May low yet.



NASI pushed to mega overbought territory.  That's longer term bullish.



BPNYA broke the resistance line, but is now diverging with the May highs.



30 Day NYMO has broken resistance and looks much more constructive.



Charts of interest 8/12/13 - rising commodities

The kiwi has a hell of a strong right shoulder formed here.  Relative strength is leading the way.  


The metals to agriculture ratio chart is at a critical level.  So far the resistance T/L and right shoulder high has offered resistance thus far.  Which way will this end up going?   


A possible large strong bottoming pattern in Tin.  



Defensive groups are still showing bearish relative strength trends.  The effect of rising inflation expectations? 

Pharma RS appears to be bear flagging after a break below the triangle.  However, i'm not sure we can say this will definitely head lower.



XLP RS is turning lower after a back-test of a LT support line.



Despite the turn in commodities retailing relative strength looks fantastic.  Who would expect that??









Reminder:

All ideas shown on this blog represent the authors opinion based on the data available.