You can see the 10 day exponential moving average has flashed a mega oversold reading (over 1.50) now 6 times in the past year. We thought this may be bullish, but it turns out the bullish/bearish relevance has been circumstantial. Looking at signals given after substantial up-trends, you can see this has been a warning to bulls that the short term top is in and an intermediate decline is underway.
Note there are only two observations here, but this is the trend so far in the larger cycle.
UPDATE 3/5/13 Looks like this mini trend is invalidated statistically. We'll dig deeper and into a longer timeframe in a future post to see what else we find.
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