"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson

September 08, 2013

Top groups update: Financials OUT; Gold Miners IN.

 Shortly after we started the top groups list, Financials have shown relative weakness.  In the last two weeks, it's become clear the strong relative strength up-trends have ended.

XLF confirmed it's relative strength (RS) breakdown, but price is still holding it's uptrend.  Given that and the slope of the RS uptrend, financials still appear to be fine investments long term.  
 

The KBW Insurance index is holding a key pivot line, while breaking a long term RS uptrend.  Again, we see money is flowing elsewhere and it's not worthy of a top group recognition at this point.



The KBW bank index is at a key level after forming a rising megaphone pattern.  Generally these forecast a trend change.  The RS support line will tell us a lot.  Maybe this will just muddle along for awhile?  Regardless, we know it's not top group worthy.  



So what do we replace financials with??  There are some good candidates out there as emerging markets in Asia and South America are starting to see some investment inflows.  The old adage investors make bottoms appears to be playing out again.   

That said, we're going with gold and gold miners.  You can see both have broken sharp resistance lines and are ALL forming price and relative strength head and shoulder bottoms.  We'll gladly trash this idea if gold miners lose the rising support line around the 25 level.  



You can play this a ton of ways.  NUGT is the 3x bullish gold miners ETF.  ABX, NEM, KGC, AUY and AEM basically track GDX.  The best stock play in the whole group might just be AGI.


This is one of the few gold miners above the 200 day moving average and it's traded sideways while other miners pulled in.  Note ~20 is heavy resistance, but that's nearly 20% away. 

Good Luck out there!   

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All ideas shown on this blog represent the authors opinion based on the data available.