Interesting signal from the ARMS index

You can see the 10 day exponential moving average has flashed a mega oversold reading (over 1.50) now 6 times in the past year.  We thought this may be bullish, but it turns out the bullish/bearish relevance has been circumstantial.   Looking at signals given after substantial up-trends, you can see this has been a warning to bulls that the short term top is in and an intermediate decline is underway.      

Note there are only two observations here, but this is the trend so far in the larger cycle.

UPDATE 3/5/13  Looks like this mini trend is invalidated statistically.  We'll dig deeper and into a longer timeframe in a future post to see what else we find.

Nat Gas is Bullish: A look at harmony of the markets.

If you want to find things that are ripping while the overall market acts like shit here you go.  This thing had a beautiful break away gap today & has a falling channel target of the Jan highs.  We could see a potential domino effect as the breakout targets a level that would signal another breakout.  This domino effect could happen up to three times!  Check it out.

Now the larger chart shows the increased significance of more dominoes falling.  A move over the Jan highs targets 4.25.  Over 4 would break the 3+ year falling channel targeting 6.  Over 6 leads us to a 3-4 year double bottom that then targets 8!

It's likely a stretch that all of these targets hit, but this is a great illustration of the harmony of markets and how the levels, actions and reactions are all related.  We also have to keep in mind that Nat Gas is very strong right now and in the middle of a strong uptrend.