"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson

August 05, 2014

Whole Foods

This morning a rumor on Carl Icahn taking a stake in Whole Foods was floated around.  There
appears to be nothing to it as of this writing.

Here and now Whole Foods on an accounting basis looks expensive with increasing competition and no doubt there are bears short on that thesis.  Frankly, we all are very aware of the bear case.

At the same time, the stock is down about 40% from last fall's high.

The big debate here is how much of an economic premium do they deserve?  They've earned a hefty one.  Whole Foods is THE brand behind the healthy eating concept and they have a gem of a concept in the in store meals.  Let's also keep in mind management had messed up so many earnings in a row, they finally have become very conservative with their guides.

Since there appears to be no truth to the rumors, undoubtedly some bears took today's pop as an opportunity to add.  At the same time think about how the last week or so has played out.  WFM dropped on earnings, the market sold-off hard last week and Icahn rumors are false.  Most bears are likely feeling numb to the fact the stock is now 10% off the lows.

Today's high around 40.50 has turned into a meaningful psychological turning point and a sentiment could really get interesting over that level.

If you've followed on twitter, you can see on the longer term time frame the conditions for a meaningful bottom are in place.


Trade 'em well.

Full disclosure: I'm long

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All ideas shown on this blog represent the authors opinion based on the data available.