"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson

September 14, 2014

Rotation Report 9/15

There are a lot of new strong trends developing in the markets as we head into options expiration week.   

Smoothed TRIN is maintaining the bottom of the 2014 range.  That's a cause for caution near term, but the range could always just shift.


TLT is approaching it's first support zone, albeit a minor support zone.


The 10 year treasury yield is approaching it's major pivot line.  Momentum via RSI has been bullish for the better part of two years now.


The market is speaking loudly about the end of tapering via rates, the US Dollar, commodities and NOW numerous equity groups.

Utilities had a nasty false breakout last week.


Real Estate has broken it's long term uptrend.  Could this be the termination of the trend from the 2009 lows?  The fan principle makes an interesting case.


Regional banks have reached the upper end of their symmetrical triangle.  This is shaping up as a buy the dip group.


Regional banks relative to financials look set to move higher on an intermediate term basis as well.  We've previously mentioned the RS in financials group as a whole, so there are likely some great opportunities here.  


Retail relative strength is looking to take out summer resistance.  


This coming as Crude Oil is doing it's best to crater.


Materials have broken a head and shoulders top relative to the S&P 500 ETF.  This comes after breaking a 1 year RS rising wedge.  The market is clearly suggesting we stay away from the group.


Energy is at a critical spot.  XLE has dipped below the August lows and trend support from 2012.


Energy Producers have formed a classic head and shoulders top setup.  However, the 40 week moving average and trend support from 2011 is near by.


EEM finally reacted to major resistance.  It's already testing the 20 week MA.


Emerging Markets strength has been a positive for large cap stocks.  That trend will be tested soon. 


Germany had already broken a three year uptrend.  Now it's re-testing broken price and RS support.  It seems like a textbook rejection is due, but we'll see.  


ILF had a sharp 7% drop last week as it tests the multi-year breakout area.



Trade 'em well!

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All ideas shown on this blog represent the authors opinion based on the data available.