"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson

January 25, 2015

Rotation Report: twisted markets

The market continues to chop around, with the indices testing some resistance late in the week.  The thing about this potential rally is the defensive groups are still in such strong position.




We can view it as wholly negative, but look at the news flow across the world.  Countries are cutting rates to negative yields and when that's not enough, they cut 'em again.  Invest-able yield is becoming more scarce by the week.  No doubt this is influencing asset flows, but we don't know how much.

 What we do know is, for the most part, the action across the markets is a mixed bag.  The bad is really bad, and it's created a loud class of bear that is now there voicing concern at every intraday dip.  Sounds familiar doesn't it?

Commodities are just a bottomless pit.


Crude had every chance to follow through on a bounce instead, it's still lifeless.  King dollar is K.I.N.G.   


The only commodities trading well are the precious metals.  Gold and it's stank radar is going off hard!


Some of the best indice charts in the world come from Europe, but the various euro area ETFs are showing us a whole bunch of nothing.  The euro area ETF with euro exposure HEDJ is pretty interesting, but it's nowhere near a buy point with 8 up days in a row.

The bullish divergence in the Nasdaq 100 parlayed into a rip into resistance.  It's a bullish price structure.


The consumer ratio spent the week retracing to the underside of the year multi-year support line.  


Here's a look at the growth to value ratios.  The Russell growth to value ratio is testing a huge level.  A breakout here would really signify more risk taking.


It's a big week on tap in tech with Google, Apple and Yahoo earnings.  Here are some charts to watch in the group this week.

The internet index is attempting to break out of this year long wedge.  A move higher would be a HUGE catalyst for tech.


Semi's have shaped a highly constructive base for a couple months now.



The cloud computing ETF is back at it's major pivot area.


Some groups trading well: restaurants, real estate/property management, payments, home improvement stores.

Thanks for reading!  Trade 'em well!

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All ideas shown on this blog represent the authors opinion based on the data available.