"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson

December 21, 2014

Rotation Report: Happy Holidays

Nearly wherever we look, there was some sort of bullish reversal on the weekly chart.  By the end of the week, it became pretty clear oil and energy stocks have made a key floor.  If the bleeding has stopped there, and there are no significant repercussions coming in the near term, what else is there to hold the market back?  For more, be sure to check out my latest article on See It Market.

Oil managed to rebound late in the week and form a doji.  The crowd has finally gotten very negative in the last two weeks.  Maybe it's time to bounce.  The 10 week MA is 20% away...wow


The anti oil play has been consumer discretionary via XLY.  Note XLY RS back-tested a multi year pivot line and reversed hard.


The Restaurants & Bars index has broken to new RS lows.  


Is this correlated with the beverages index?  Lord knows the drinks are where restaurants margins are.  A possible H&S top has formed.  It's largest components are Coke, Pepsi, Budweiser, Diageo and Nestle.


What a mid-week rip and breakout in cloud computing ETF SKYY


The Cyber Security ETF HACK is as strong as can be headed into 2015.


Is this a continuation H&S in the NYSE?  


Checking in on the NYSE dashboard, we see volume is very strong.


S&P 500 breadth is trying to broaden out once again after breaking a 5 month downtrend.  The 200D has been key in the past.


The VIX starts the week at what's been a major pivot area in 2014.


Is that a head and shoulders top in the smoothed equity only put call ratio?  


The Show me to Tell me ratio has broken it's nearly year long downtrend.  Will it stick?


DBA formed a bullish engulfing week at a 4 month support area.  It seems healthy that corn and wheat have led it.


Bonds were huge last week and will be into this week...

TLT doji'd on the weekly chart at the October highs


HYG reversed the prior break down on massive volume


Emerging market high yield bonds reversed but didn't erase a lot of losses.


The same can be said for EM bonds in general, although a key low has been marked.


Moving overseas...

Emerging Markets bounced at multi-year channel support.


The Europe STOXX 600 may be forming a continuation head and shoulders similar to the NYSE.


The Euro bounce failed immediately as it recorded a bearish engulfing week.



Thanks for reading!  Trade 'em well

No comments:

Reminder:

All ideas shown on this blog represent the authors opinion based on the data available.