"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson

December 06, 2014

Thoughts on green energy

The push to solar energy and electric vehicles is a multi-generational transition.  As investors, we've got to keep in mind this is something that's going to evolve for at least the rest of this century.  Most of us still like our gas guzzlers and really don't want to change.  Simultaneously, the major auto manufacturers are doing everything possible to soothe our desire.

In the next 10 years or so, science will make it more clear than ever that we've completely ruined the ozone...or something like that; and the mega shift will continue.

Tesla was and is the green energy white knight.  Elon Musk is the cult figure folks will continue to rally behind.  They are THE Brand behind clean energy.  Odds are good that it'll still be very successful, especially when they substantially reduce costs and come out with cheaper models.  But isn't THAT where the economic proposition comes in?  Isn't that where the analyst models are seeing cuts?  

Again, the question for investors is how patient do we want to be waiting for an opportunity?  The economic proposition is one of necessity and one of THE greatest sparks of change out there.

Rooftop solar for single family housing is a whole other thing.  It's hopeless at this point.  It seems like each rooftop provider wants you to sign a 20 year lease.  Who the hell wants to take on that type of commitment?  Who wants those damn things on their roof anyway?  And if you're not in the sunbelt that is the southwest, is there really that much of an economic benefit to them?

If you look at the solar ETF's, they are all trash and the worst performing group since the 2007 highs.  You've got to respect that.

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