Germany and China are in major corrections, but things appear pretty good here in various U.S. groups.
Sentiment is amazing these days and continues to drive the market. The Fed Statement lit the wick (just as it did in March) and ripped the guts out of The Fed must raise rates now crowd. Check out this week's link-fest for a full primer on sentiment.
MACRO
Sentiment is amazing these days and continues to drive the market. The Fed Statement lit the wick (just as it did in March) and ripped the guts out of The Fed must raise rates now crowd. Check out this week's link-fest for a full primer on sentiment.
MACRO
Germany is 10% off the highs, Shanghai is 14% off the highs.
Then there's the major U.S. indices at or near all time highs. We could say that's a sign of relative strength, but the U.S. markets have just done their own thing year-to-date.
This week's candle in the S&P 500 sums it all up. Resistance in the 2120's, support in the 2060's
The market saw it's sharpest buying pressure since the last FOMC press conference.
The put call ratio is at the toppy end of the range.
Breadth is still pretty much in-line with price.
The 2-10 year US Treasury yield curve made a lower high as longer end Bond ETFs staged bullish outside weeks (EMB, HYG)
Groups
The homebuilders stood out Friday. They're at a key point, trying to break out of a multi-month base
Industrials have consolidated for months and touched the 200D MA. If this group is going to rally, now is the time.
Materials have formed a symmetrical triangle near all time highs. Names that stand out: DOW, ECL, VMC
Biotech broke month long consolidations to new highs...
Apparel retail has formed an apparent durable low near the 200 day moving average.
Other Markets
It sure looks like there is more downside coming for Europe ETFs just looking at weekly charts of Germany and France(not shown)
Gold ran to the 40 week moving average. The larger structure is very interesting and will eventually lead to a monster move (direction yet to be decided). The waiting is the hardest part.
Other Thoughts and Commentary
Uber's court battle in California is highly relevant. A large portion of the 'new economy' is reliant on this independent contractor classification. We'll see how big this gets, but the uncertainty could weigh on valuations/possibly offer opportunity for awhile.
Looking around the world, what market's actually look good? Yes China(thanks to government pulling 3 levers a week to increase/open up investment) and some emerging Asia. It's a global shit show and not that great of an investing environment in general. That said, the U.S. could be the main beneficiary in the second half of the year.
Trade 'em well!
Groups
The homebuilders stood out Friday. They're at a key point, trying to break out of a multi-month base
Industrials have consolidated for months and touched the 200D MA. If this group is going to rally, now is the time.
Materials have formed a symmetrical triangle near all time highs. Names that stand out: DOW, ECL, VMC
Biotech broke month long consolidations to new highs...
...just as seasonality is turning higher.
Defense & Aerospace is at a key point.
Apparel retail has formed an apparent durable low near the 200 day moving average.
Other Markets
It sure looks like there is more downside coming for Europe ETFs just looking at weekly charts of Germany and France(not shown)
Brent Crude is at a key price point after seeing weaker bounces at trend-line support. Energy ETFs like OIH and XOP can't seem to hold a bid. This is the key space to watch early the week.
Other Thoughts and Commentary
Uber's court battle in California is highly relevant. A large portion of the 'new economy' is reliant on this independent contractor classification. We'll see how big this gets, but the uncertainty could weigh on valuations/possibly offer opportunity for awhile.
Looking around the world, what market's actually look good? Yes China(thanks to government pulling 3 levers a week to increase/open up investment) and some emerging Asia. It's a global shit show and not that great of an investing environment in general. That said, the U.S. could be the main beneficiary in the second half of the year.
Trade 'em well!
No comments:
Post a Comment