"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson

May 20, 2013

R&D Trade Review: CSCO

I've had CSCO sitting in my chart book for months now.  It broke a multi year resistance line and popped a little bit.  However, for most of this great 2013 rally, the stock had sat in a range.  

The day before earnings I bought the June 21 straddle for 1.45.  My thinking in this trade was simple; the stock was in the middle of a strong push higher and it was just waiting for a catalyst.  I figured even I was wrong and the reaction was unfavorable, the stock had been trading like a caged beast.  Note that tight 5 month range.


I chose the 21 price point because my bias was bullish therefore the calls would be more in the money.  I picked June instead of May so I could ride the position for a few weeks if I chose so.  

I was thinking buying a day early may give me a bit better(lower) implied volatility.  It didn't work out.  Into the earnings report this I likely could have bought the straddle for 1.35 or even 1.30.  

The stock moved higher, as I had anticipated, so then I had to decide what level I was looking to exit at.  The closest thing I had to a reasonable target was the fibonacci cluster at the 24.25 zone.  


I ended up taking the trade off the table as price respected this fib cluster for two days in a row.  I closed the position at 3.05 on Friday.    

To recap, with the simple understanding of the larger picture of price, I was able to favorably position myself for a winning trade.  However, with better preparation and execution I probably could have squeezed an extra quarter out of this trade.   

I think the key take away here is get the most important part right.  We aren't going to be perfect!

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All ideas shown on this blog represent the authors opinion based on the data available.