Post Holiday Catch-up

Quick summary:

• While the market has been down the first two days of the year, there are underlying signs of strength in stocks

• Either the whole global growth thesis is going to get blown out of the water soon, or this is setting up on a tee for fresh longs to step in.  

International

EEM, ILF, EWZ have sold off hard into critical support.  EEM is a favorite idea for a long trade.

Other international ETF's at support: Malaysia, So. Korea,, Phillipenes.

International ETF's leading to the downside: Turkey, Thailand.

Two leaders are emerging in emerging markets:  The middle east via MES and possibly Singapore.

The Singapore iShares is getting deep in the apex.  Which was is this going to break?

Equities

While the market sold off end of the week, breadth is outperforming price as shown in the NYSE advance/decline line

The market shows it's strength in sell-offs.  Note the improved relative strength of financials, housing and transports on these down days.

The Philly Shipping index has formed a huge cup and is working on a handle now.  Buy 'em

Oil producers and explorers MAY be finishing short term bottoms offering excellent swing longs.

The cloud computing ETF is a helluva nice bull flag into the 10D SMA.  

Other industry groups holding above the 10 day moving averages:  building materials, coal, steel, asset managers, semi's, rails, publishing, aerospace, big data

Soft drinks index has pulled in hard to the rising 50D.  I'm looking at Feb call buys in KO and front week ATM put spread writes on further weakness.

The Australian Dollar appears to be bottoming

The IPO index is holding over the 10D.  This itself is not a good play, but it's a risk-on signal in the recent IPO space.  Some names of note: AERI, CUDA, LGIH, QUNR, OXFD, RLYP, MEP


Commodities:

Nat Gas may be forming a short term head and shoulders top at key resistance.  UNG feb puts is how I'd like to play it.

 The Goldman Commodity index is VERY compressed from a long term standpoint.  It got smoked last week.  An outsized move is coming soon.

 This is a great spot to try long trades in DBA

Keep an eye on the 10 week moving average in DBB and GYX

Let's have a great trading week!!