"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson

July 15, 2014

Fumes coming from the Bakken?

Over the weekend Kodiak, a Bakken pure play energy producer, merged into Whiting Petroleum at a discount to the current share price. 

Takeout rumors have swirled around KOG all year, and it was up 30% year to date vs 16% for the energy producer ETF XOP.  However, in such hot, highly acclaimed acreage, 0 premium makes little sense.

There is the idea floating around the deal makes the two companies a more attractive takeover target by a mega cap like Exxon.  Pffff!  This isn't a gift basket we're talking about!

Kodiak is highly levered, with little in tangible assets.  It's likely their existing well yields were dropping off.  That gave them two options:  either do a huge offering or sell and get backing from Whiting.  If that was the case, it was a reasonable choice.

To monitor the situation, you'll want to watch the other Bakken plays OAS and CLR.  As of this writing, they're both down 5% since the news.  XOP is down 2.7%

Trade 'em well and don't huff the fumes(for too long)

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