"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson

February 03, 2014

Digging into commodities

With the US dollar approaching resistance we have a near term tailwind for commodities.  The funny thing is, only the ag commodities are in a position to take advantage of the tailwind.

Let's dig in, first looking at the ugly action in the metals.

Gold has acted like crap after breaking resistance.  The break isn't sustainable and may want to re-test the prior lows.


Silver is sitting on critical support.  With all this fear in the market, why hasn't it been able to get a bid?


The simple idea here is to short pops via SLV + GLD puts.

Copper is approaching key support as well.  It still has a measured move much lower, so be mindful of that.  


 A lot of soft agriculture commodities look much better after long term weakness.  Check out this monster reversal week in Sugar.  We haven't seen a candle like that since 2012.  This bounce has legs IMO.


 Cocoa is at key resistance after breaking a two year double bottom pattern.  It can really pick up steam over that 39 level.


Coffee recently broke a multi-year downtrend and is confirming the uptrend:  Buy JO.



Reminder:

All ideas shown on this blog represent the authors opinion based on the data available.