GDFR?

Well, it's going down for real.  The end of the rate trade that is.  Well...maybe.  Coming into the year, the rate trade plays were set up on a platter for another year of spectacular performance and even out-performance.  By February it just fell apart.  Note the Regional Banks to Utilities ratio.

The ratio is taking on a major resistance zone, but this might have already tipped it's hand.  Note the bullish MACD cross and the now expanding upper bollinger band.

In the Rotation Report, I noted how this was a key point in time for the Stock-Bond ratio.  Well, it broke above the key area.  That's huge for the rest of the year if it can stick.

A sustained break would be quite bullish for stocks.  However, what is kind of confusing is it appears the bulls are low on 'dry powder' to really sustain a push in stocks higher.  At least in the short term.

So maybe an overshoot is in play here? Maybe it's just going to take a few weeks to work all this out?

Maybe, the RSI divergence in TLT matters.

Time will tell but this really seems to be some of the most important action of the year.  Stay tuned!