"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson

July 01, 2015

Greece and the contagion scenario

The EU doesn't want Greece out of the eurozone (Grexit).  They just can't have it at this point..they want Greece to play ball like they have for X number of years.

In this globally competitive world, we've seen over 50 interest rate cuts across the globe in the first half of 2015.  Why?  To devalue currencies and keep economies competitive.

If the EU suddenly kicked Greece out of the EZ, the fundamentals of the Euro would notably improve.  That would likely strengthen the Euro and hurt the competitiveness of the U.K, Germany etc.

Where that gets interesting is that would make Italy and Spain's debt all that much more expensive while taking a wrecking ball to their economic competitiveness.  

Let's not forget all the new debt opened this quarter in euro denominated terms by foreign entities.  THAT is where the contagion comes in.  THAT is where things can go from whatever, Greece to YO!(important). 

This isn't about doing what's best for Greece and since the creation of the Euro zone, it never has been.  Odds of a Grexit are low, but if that happens, uncertainty increases significantly until the next ECB press conference.

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