Rotation Report: Grex-in

Finally, a short term resolution was reached in Greece.  That played out very oddly, didn't it?  

The market did a fabulous job working off some greed last week, though we're still running pretty hot.  With the late week strength, we're quickly approaching measured move targets off of S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 bases.  All of a sudden, signs of strength are everywhere.  It's getting pretty hard to doubt the rally.  Sooo, how many bears throw in the towel?  Let's dig in!

Indices

The Nasdaq 100 approaches it's measured move target roughly 2% higher.

aaaand the small caps are starting to break this upper boundary.  

Indicators

The NYSE dashboard is looking good with all indicators hitting fresh highs.

Small caps volatility is testing long term support.  It'll be a meaningful week or two in the small caps for sure.  Yeah, yeah you can't chart the VIX etc.  Note this level is also the Q4 low.

The stock-bond ratio broke to a higher high and broke the falling boundary line.  The next test is the powerful resistance level in the 33s.  

Group Action

Momentum is picking up in Consumer Discretionary, Aerospace & Defense, Materials, Healthcare and Tech.  What's not to like?  I mean literally, it's becoming harder to find groups not to like which is the polar opposite of 3 weeks ago!

The biotech group is very interesting right now.  The strength is still there and some of the individual price action is incredible.  Since the 50 day moving average test at the beginning of the month, the broad more small/mid cap focused XBI has outpaced the large cap focused IBB.

Recent leader AGIO has what looks to be a head and shoulders top setup.  Let's see how this resolves.

The XBI to IBB ratio is testing long term resistance.  Is the biotech space about to go bonkers near-term?  The conditions are present, but who knows.

Real Estate is starting to base out at the 10 week moving average.  It's time to look long if you're going to!

KOL broke above the falling 50D MA Friday.  There's a lot of room to run here.

Commodities

DBA broke a bearish pennant mid-week.  Downside momentum has slowed and the ag stocks are still trading well.  Something doesn't jive here, but the space is still worth eyeing IMO.  [Who am I kidding, I eye everything regardless ;) ]

Lumber tried and failed to break this monster wedge.  This week seems important

The way gold has acted since the 1300 test has been and remains pretty telling risk-on sign.  

Bonds

TIP found some buyers at long time trend support.  Mid-term government bond duration ETF IEF looks healthy as can be testing a pivot level.  Time to get long?

Overseas

The biggest break of the week was in Japan as it curls the bollinger band higher.



The world index hit 52 week highs Friday as it continues to move out of it's base.

European Financials hinted at the Greek Resolution mid-week with this monster breakout.  It's funny how things play out.  Let's see how it handles the 200D MA and December high area.

Thanks for reading!