To Russia with greed

I'm eyeing Russia this week for a long trade.  Here's a quick look at what I'm seeing.

There was a pretty nice kick-off gap in Russian small caps this morning that broke a falling channel.  That gap is a good buy signal in stocks, but not really in ETFs.  We see the month-long bullish divergence forming within the channel.  

At this point it requires about a 1 dollar stop down near the 18.75 area. The main upside targets are 24 and 26.  Of course the December bounce peak at 21,75 may provide some resistance as well.  Keep in mind this ETF is highly illiquid. 

The broad Russia ETF RSX is testing the top of it's range and with a positive week, the MACD will cross up on the weekly chart.  At the top of the range, there is no reason to buy right now.  The most recent low was 15 and it's the first level worth trading against.  If it does break out the first target is the high 19's.

What do you think?  Am I out of my mind?