"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth" - Mike Tyson

February 03, 2015

The anti dollar trade

The anti dollar trade is in full effect!  It's everywhere and undeniable today.  The energy move really tipped this one off didn't it?  After doing some digging, it looks like there is a lot more in this trade with a ton of ways to play it.  After all, it's obviously great for everything measured in dollars.

The greenback is finally rolling over after it's amazing run.  We're seeing RSI and MACD sell signals on this base wreckage.  There's more room lower


The euro looks great here for the snap back action.


The DAX has been performing spectacularly, but because of the strong dollar, we really haven't been able to reap the rewards through EWG.  That's changing now with the monster breakout.


TLT is testing the 10D this morning after flashing negative momentum divergences.  The 10D has been support all year.  Let's see if we get a change in character as it's been highly correlated to the dollar.



The DBA is at some pretty key long term support.  On top of that, plenty of the Ag ETF's are shaping up nicely.  Some of the moves in the group today like corn and soybeans have earned our attention.



Cotton has a great look to it.  Here are a couple of different time-frames.



Wheat is finding a bid at the fall lows.  



Sugar once again is finding a bid at all time low support.  



Gold is curious as it dumps today and tries to find footing at the 200D.  There's still that open measured move to the 128ish area in the GLD


Gold miners RS is still within this wedge.  Odds still favor higher.  


Maybe we're still early in the energy bounce, because frack sand plays like SLCA are just now trying to break out.


The fertilizer ETF is looking pretty dang good.


I mentioned MON last week as a potential top, but it's breaking the diamond higher.  It makes sense to wait for a break of horizontal resistance nearby, but the break is pretty telling.


Trade 'em well!

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All ideas shown on this blog represent the authors opinion based on the data available.